| Home Page | Previous section | Next Section |
We have shown that there is no empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide causes the current global warming. Thus, the Vostok correlation between carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is no more than a manifestation of ocean/atmosphere equilibrium. Furthermore, there is a 50% chance that we might see the current period of global warming result purely from natural climate variability. Finally, we have shown that there is no statistically significant correlation between increased temperatures and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, mechanistic models tend to support the man-made global warming hypothesis. Thus, there is reasonable suspicion that the current global warming is caused by man-made releases of carbon dioxide.
With the balance of evidence, it is sensible to take all steps to reduce use of fossil fuels.
At the same time, there is a reasonable probability that the current global warming is the result of natural climate variability. Indeed, over the longer run, even without man-made releases, we would be certain to see global warming such as is now occurring. Thus, we should plan for a period of global warming. We need to recognize that climate change will drive wide-scale population movements. We should make provision for such movements. At the same time, we need to recognize that such movements will produce conflict. We need to minimize the risks from such conflicts. Specifically, we need to reduce the inventory of nuclear weapons and the availability of nuclear materials. To this end, we need to reduce the use of nuclear energy. The larger the number of nuclear facilities, the greater is the quantity of raw materials suitable for nuclear weapons. At the same time, dramatic climate change would inevitably lead to abandonment of many nuclear power facilities (for example, flooded facilities). Such abandoned facilities would provide a ready source of nuclear materials to combatants. It should also be recognized that widespread nuclear conflict poses far greater climate risks than those posed by greenhouse gases.
The science behind the hypothesis that carbon dioxide releases cause the current global warming is strongly indicative. However, the confidence in this science is vastly exaggerated. Current claims that we are 90% confident of the cause are overestimates. Analysis of ice-core data shows that confidence should not be put at much more than 50%.
| Home Page | Previous section | Next Section |